Definately not. I have so much 3.X stuff, it'll last me a lifetime. I think this is true for most ppl. also, it is now much easier to get both third party stuff and to get secondhand stuff nowadays, so the availability is not likely to dry up any time soon, so new players can get ahold of old material easily and cheaply. I quite frankly think that the best way forward for WotC is to grow the hobby in its entirety, selling more of the same books to more ppl and to have a 'consolidated, best of..' version come out. A real 4th edition is going to bomb IMHO in the current structure of the marketplace.