D&D 4E Would 4E be Popular?

[Kanegrundar]

I'm willing to give WotC the benefit of the doubt as well. The only reason the doom and gloom predictions get bandied about more often than not is they attract attention and get people talking. Overall, I'm more than happy with D&D under WotC's rule, and I hope, and expect, that when 4E comes out (hopefully around 2010 or later) it will be just another revision and nothing more.

Kane

 

[The Sophist]

.... I have faith in WotC. They have yet to really let me down, so I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt.

Good one!

Wait ... you're being serious here ...

*cannot stop laughing*

 

[The Sophist]

A lot of crap has been spewed in this thread, but I think Rasyr places his finger on a major vein here...

.... First off, I do believe that 4E will be coming out next year (2006), and that it will be much more mini oriented than the 3.x versions.

I agree with this. Hasbro definitely know where the profits are -- they're with minis (you Suckas! anyone over the age of 20 should feel shame ... ).

I also believe that it will not be OGL, that it will be a closed system...

I can see why there might be a motivation to make it a closed system, but I doubt this very much. The reason is simple: with the OGL, the genie is out of the bottle.

If 'Has bored-of-the-Coast' decided to make a closed system, they would immediately splinter the market between the OGL faction and the new non-OGL faction.

Mongoose (with their 'pocket' versions of the PHB & DMG) would instantly leap into the gap, and produce hardback version of the "old" OGL rules.

The market would be split.

Okay, this is NOT an impossibility. If Hasbro decided that the profits gained from a smaller slice of the RPG market PLUS the profits from their 'action figures' (whoops, I mean 'plastic minis') outweighed the profits gained from being the main system of RPGers, then they might make 4e a 'closed system'.

Will 4E be popluar? I have no idea. However, I do know that there is a large portion of D&D players who will purchase just because it says D&D on the cover.

Yup. Branding rules.

But only so far ...

I think that it will be economic issues, rather than system issues.

In other worlds, normal laws of human behaviour will apply. How shocking!

I think that not only do they already know this, but this is what they would be counting on. That many folks would buy it just because it is D&D.

Yes ... branding ... painfully TRUE. But not a guarantee ... (how many people still buy Commodore computers?) ...

... This is why Hasbro/WotC would not be overly worried about doing a new edition IMO. Sure, there would be lots of complaints, and then many would go ahead and get it anyways.

Whining will happen, but if it is similar to 3.x and OGL the whining will be less than it will be if WotC cuts off the OGL teat.

Think "More minis dependance!"

I think this is the one overwhelmingly correct insight of your post, Rasyr. Hasbro know where the money is. 3.5 was FAR MORE 'miniatures-dependent' than 3.0 (and 3.0 was already pretty dependent on minis).

But maybe the ultimate oldschoolers will be happy -- a final return to "Chainmail-plus-fantasy supplement!"

 

[The Sophist]

don't forget Holmes Basic was split into two editions. 2edD&D Holmes and 3edD&D Holmes.

3edD&D Holmes was released after (1ed)ADnD
edit: and before Moldvay/Cook

DAMN! I knew I forgot something ...

 

[buzz]

Good one!

Wait ... you're being serious here ...

*cannot stop laughing*

Are you saying that I'm wrong in feeling WotC has not let me down? That maybe I don't know myself well enough to make that statement? If only I had your telephathic powers.

As for the rest of your posts, I present this quote from Mike Mearls:

If your only answer to the question 'Why is D&D 3e so popular?' is 'Because D&D was the first' or 'Because D&D is a recognizable brand' then you shouldn't be a professional designer.

There is no fourth edition coming in 2006.

 

[Rasyr]

If 'Has bored-of-the-Coast' decided to make a closed system, they would immediately splinter the market between the OGL faction and the new non-OGL faction.

Mongoose (with their 'pocket' versions of the PHB & DMG) would instantly leap into the gap, and produce hardback version of the "old" OGL rules.

The market would be split.

Okay, this is NOT an impossibility. If Hasbro decided that the profits gained from a smaller slice of the RPG market PLUS the profits from their 'action figures' (whoops, I mean 'plastic minis') outweighed the profits gained from being the main system of RPGers, then they might make 4e a 'closed system'.

I have pointed this out as well in the past. Specifically that Mongoose IS positioning itself to jump into the gap should Hasbro/WotC stop putting things under the OGL.

I think this is the one overwhelmingly correct insight of your post, Rasyr. Hasbro know where the money is. 3.5 was FAR MORE 'miniatures-dependent' than 3.0 (and 3.0 was already pretty dependent on minis).

Important point there -- Hasbro -- not WotC. Hasbro was not supposed to meddle with WotC after the purchase, yet one of the first things they did was to lay-off a large number of employees.

There is no fourth edition coming in 2006.

I guess we will see in about a year and a half....

BTW, here is a quote from Mearls for you as well...

When 4e comes out (maybe 2 years away, based on how many freelancers WotC is hiring, but that's a pure guesstimate), I guess some of our questions will be answered, but there'll be a whole new raft of questions.

You can find it on the bottom of the second page of this thread --> http://www.enworld.org/forums/showthread.php?t=113175

 

[KingOfChaos]

They put 4th edition out before 2010 and they can kiss my interest and money goodbye. They almost lost it with 3.5, for that matter.

 

[Turanil]

4E could be the greatest gaming system ever created, and still people would complain about how there are too many spikes and tattoos in the artwork or how the newest incarnation of the ranger class dosen't fit their image of what a ranger should be.

But!... you perfectly know this actually going to be the case! All these too many spikes and tattoos in the artwork, plus the ranger who looks like anything you want except a ranger, is INTOLERABLE! I am not going to buy 4e for this sole reason (although their system is excellent).

 

[Ranger REG]

But maybe the ultimate oldschoolers will be happy -- a final return to "Chainmail-plus-fantasy supplement!"

Meh. Ultimate does not mean they're know what's best for everybody. As for Chainmail, we had it, it did not go well. But D&D Miniatures are selling strong. Personally, it should be renamed Chainmail v.3.0

 

[buzz]

BTW, here is a quote from Mearls for you as well...

Well, that would still mean 2007, not 2006. (I'm also not sure why the hiring of freelancers indicates that 4e is being worked on.)

I still don't buy it. I also don't understand why some people relish vilifying WotC. Seems a strange way to get one's jollies.